Chinese trade facing "go cheap" structure is faced with new upgrade
Although May import and export data than expected optimism, but Chinese foreign trade enterprises are facing high costs are still full of worry.
Rising labor costs, RMB real exchange rate to rise, rising commodity prices, all of these make enterprises profit margins under pressure. At the same time, the transformation of foreign trade growth mode is also facing the passive adjustment of the thrust. The expert expresses, to change from passive to active adjustment adjustment, implementation of foreign "go cheap" and the upgrading of the structure during the gradual process.
"The rising labor costs is inevitable for economic development Chinese." Renmin University of China School of economics professor Wang Jinbin said, the reform of social security system Chinese economy is lagging, and China economy income distribution system is obviously insufficient, the proportion of factor income in the initial distribution are declining in the past ten years. In addition, the foreign-funded enterprises in the labor force weak labor groups pay have long-term inadequate compensation. Therefore, the rapid rise in wages can be regarded as the obvious weakness of the market self correction of the above three factors.
"Pay is a good thing for China economy, can reach the final goal of everyone sharing the fruits of economic growth; but on the other hand, in the current economic situation, will undoubtedly increase the cost of foreign trade enterprises, short-term impact on exports and growth." Wang Jinbin said.
In addition to labor costs, land, water and other resources of energy input costs are also on the increase. "The international market of crude oil, iron ore and other bulk products enter price recovery channel, as of March this year, China's imports of primary products price levels have been 4 consecutive months rose two digits, and increase the monthly rise." Foreign economic and trade university professor Bai Shuqiang said.
In addition, China is also faced with the pressure of RMB appreciation. Director of research center, Chinese international monetary economy foreign economic and trade university professor Sun Huayu said, according to the real effective exchange rate of the bank for International Settlements released in June 15th, from 2010 January to May, the euro area as a whole dollar devaluation of 7.84%, 2.62%, 5.49% appreciation of the renminbi. This means that, although the renminbi unchanged against the dollar nominal bilateral exchange rate, real effective appreciation of the renminbi relative to the euro area is close to 13.33%, equivalent to the real effective appreciation of close to $2.87%. The renminbi greatly practical on the appreciation of the euro, the European market will slow down the China export of restorative growth, promote increased imports, but also intensified Chinese products in the non euro area market and the euro zone products competitive pressure.
Expert analysis, high cost will make foreign trade enterprise profit margin pressure. This is because China export commodity prices are determined by the international market, manufacturers difficult will increase costs out, China foreign trade or will bid farewell to "cheap age". In this process, the strength of the enterprise may be eliminated, the structure of foreign trade is facing the passive adjustment of the thrust, long Chinese manufacturing industry to rely on low wage, high consumption, high emission driving growth model will be difficult to continue.
Ministry of Commerce Research Institute researcher Mei Xinyu said, with the China economic development, labor, land costs will rise, this is an inevitable trend, is not man-made blocking. Enterprises difficult to continue past the era of cheap labor strategy. So, now that the government, enterprises and society should form a consensus, the original must be low labor cost based on the mode of reform.